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Detecting Climate Change due to Increasing Carbon Dioxide.

R A Madden, V Ramanathan

    Science (New York, N.Y.)
    |August 15, 1980
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Surface warming from increased carbon dioxide (CO2) is predicted by climate models but not yet observed at 60 degrees N. Ocean thermal inertia or cooling factors may delay detection, potentially until the year 2000.

    Area of Science:

    • Climate science
    • Atmospheric science
    • Oceanography

    Background:

    • Global temperatures are rising due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
    • Climate models predict detectable surface warming at 60 degrees N.
    • Observed temperature variability at 60 degrees N does not yet match predictions.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • Investigate the interannual temperature variability at 60 degrees N.
    • Determine if predicted surface warming is currently detectable.
    • Identify potential reasons for the discrepancy between model predictions and observations.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of observed interannual temperature data at 60 degrees N.
    • Comparison of observed data with predictions from three-dimensional climate models.

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  • Consideration of factors influencing temperature variability, such as ocean thermal inertia and compensating cooling.

    • Main Results:

    • Predicted surface warming due to increased CO2 is not yet detectable at 60 degrees N.
    • Ocean thermal inertia may delay the detection of warming by over a decade.
    • Compensating cooling factors could also be masking the predicted warming.

    Conclusions:

    • The detection of CO2-induced warming may be delayed until the year 2000 due to model uncertainties and ocean thermal inertia.
    • Future detection efforts should simultaneously examine multiple climate variables to minimize ambiguities from unrecognised compensating cooling.