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Increasing turnover through time in tropical forests.

O L Phillips, A H Gentry

    Science (New York, N.Y.)
    |February 18, 1994
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Tropical forest turnover, measured by tree mortality and recruitment, has significantly increased since the 1950s. This accelerating trend, observed across pantropical forests, may profoundly impact biodiversity.

    Area of Science:

    • Ecology
    • Forest Science
    • Climate Change Research

    Background:

    • Tropical forests are critical ecosystems for global biodiversity and carbon cycling.
    • Understanding forest dynamics, including tree mortality and recruitment, is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change.
    • Previous studies have indicated shifts in forest composition, but comprehensive assessments of turnover rates across broad geographic scales are limited.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To quantify changes in tree turnover rates across multiple tropical forest sites.
    • To identify temporal trends and potential drivers of altered forest dynamics.
    • To assess the implications of changing turnover for tropical forest ecosystems.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of long-term forest inventory data from 40 tropical sites spanning several decades.

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  • Calculation of tree turnover rates using metrics of tree mortality and recruitment.
  • Statistical comparison of turnover rates across different time periods and forest types.

    • Main Results:

    • A significant increase in average tree turnover rates was observed across the inventoried tropical forests since the 1950s.
    • A notable acceleration in the rate of forest turnover was detected pantropically after 1980.
    • Analysis of 22 mature forest sites with multiple inventory periods confirmed an increasing trend in forest turnover.

    Conclusions:

    • Tropical forest dynamics are undergoing significant changes, characterized by elevated tree mortality and recruitment.
    • The observed acceleration in forest turnover suggests a widespread response to environmental changes, potentially including climate change and land-use pressures.
    • These shifts in forest dynamics have profound implications for the future of tropical forest biodiversity and ecosystem functions.