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Related Experiment Videos

How many hindsight biases are there?

Hartmut Blank1, Steffen Nestler, Gernot von Collani

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Portsmouth, King Henry Building, King Henry I Street, Portsmouth PO1 2DY, United Kingdom. hartmut.blank@port.ac.uk

Cognition
|September 4, 2007
PubMed
Summary
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Hindsight bias is not a single phenomenon. Research shows it comprises three distinct components: memory distortions, foreseeability, and necessity, which function independently.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • Hindsight bias research often assumes a unitary phenomenon.
  • Previous studies have yielded contradictory findings and theoretical explanations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To challenge the unitary view of hindsight bias.
  • To propose and empirically validate a multi-component model of hindsight bias.
  • To investigate the distinctiveness of memory distortions, impressions of foreseeability, and impressions of necessity.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis and systematic literature survey.
  • Four empirical studies examining hindsight bias components in political elections.
  • Statistical analysis of component magnitudes, correlations, and external variable influences.

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Main Results:

  • Impressions of foreseeability and memory distortions exhibit differing hindsight effects and are largely uncorrelated.
  • Impressions of necessity also show dissociation from memory distortions.
  • Extraneous variables differentially influence the identified hindsight bias components.

Conclusions:

  • Hindsight bias is a multi-component phenomenon, not a unitary construct.
  • Divergent findings in hindsight bias research may stem from examining different components.
  • A separate components view can reconcile cognitive and social-motivational explanations.