[Application of capture-recapture method in the malignant tumor death registry]

To estimate the number of death from malignant tumor and to assess the completeness of cancer registry data using the capture-recapture method.

Data about death form malignant tumor were collected during the period of 2004 and 2005 from cancer registry, civil administration and police registries in Linzhou. Cases in every source were matched on the address, name, sex, ID card, date of death, cause of death. A 3-source log-liner poisson model was used to estimate the real number of death from malignant tumor during the period of 2004 and 2005 in Linzhou.

The real number of death from malignant tumor that estimated by capture-recapture method was 3140 (95% CI: 3124 - 3161) during 2004-2005 year in Linzhou. Underreported number by source linkage was 71. Log-liner model demonstrated positive dependence between the 3 sources, implying that 2-source model would underestimate missing cases. Using the mortality number estimated by the capture-recapture as the denominator, under-reporting rate of cancer registry was 6.6%.

It is feasible to estimate the real number of death from malignant tumor and to correct data bias by applying the capture-recapture method.