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Quantitative formulation of reliability in stratigraphic correlation.

J R Southam, W W Hay, T R Worsley

    Science (New York, N.Y.)
    |April 25, 1975
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study introduces a statistical method to determine the most reliable stratigraphic sequences for correlation. By calculating the probability (p) and associated uncertainties (p

    Area of Science:

    • Stratigraphy
    • Geological Sciences
    • Statistical Analysis

    Background:

    • Determining the order of stratigraphic events is crucial for geological correlation.
    • Finite sampling in stratigraphic sections introduces uncertainty in event ordering.
    • Existing methods require robust statistical approaches to quantify this uncertainty.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a statistical framework for assessing the reliability of stratigraphic sequences.
    • To quantify the uncertainty associated with the probability (p) of event order.
    • To establish criteria for selecting the most reliable sequences for stratigraphic correlation.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized statistical techniques to calculate maximum likelihood estimator (p') of event order probability.

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Determined the lower bound of the confidence interval (p(l)) to express uncertainty.
  • Defined a reliability parameter, p'(1-p(l)), for evaluating sequence order.

    • Main Results:

    • Calculated key statistical parameters (p' and p(l)) to represent the probability and uncertainty of stratigraphic event order.
    • Demonstrated that maximizing the parameter p'(1-p(l)) identifies the most reliable sequences.
    • The method provides a quantitative measure for selecting optimal stratigraphic correlations.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed statistical method enhances the reliability of stratigraphic correlation.
    • Quantifying uncertainty through p' and p(l) is essential for accurate geological interpretations.
    • Maximizing p'(1-p(l)) offers a robust approach to selecting the most dependable event sequences.