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An Improved Procedure for EI Nino Forecasting: Implications for Predictability.

D Chen, S E Zebiak, A J Busalacchi

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|September 22, 1995

Summary

Improved El Niño forecasting is achieved by coupling ocean-atmosphere models and assimilating wind data. This method enhances predictability and overcomes the spring barrier, suggesting El Niño is more predictable than previously thought.

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Oceanography
Atmospheric Science

Background:

El Niño forecasting traditionally faces challenges, including a 'spring barrier' to prediction.
Previous models often did not fully integrate ocean-atmosphere interactions for initialization.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and evaluate an improved data assimilation procedure for El Niño forecasting.
To assess the impact of coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions on forecast accuracy and predictability.

Main Methods:

A coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation procedure was employed.
Only wind information was assimilated, without using oceanic data.
The model initialization explicitly considered air-sea interaction.

Main Results:

The new procedure yielded improved El Niño forecasts for the 1980s compared to previous methods.
The explicit consideration of air-sea interaction was identified as the key factor for improvement.
The spring barrier to El Niño prediction was eliminated by this procedure.

Conclusions:

El Niño may be more predictable than previously estimated.
Forecast predictability might vary on decadal or longer timescales.
The spring barrier may not be an intrinsic feature of the real climate system.