Spring nitrate flux in the Mississippi River Basin: a landscape model with conservation applications

Nitrogen derived from fertilizer runoff in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is acknowledged as a primary cause of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. To identify the location and magnitude of nitrate runoff hotspots, and thus determine where increased conservation efforts may best improve water quality, we modeled the relationship between nitrogen inputs and spring nitrate loading in watersheds of the MRB. Fertilizer runoff was found to account for 59% of loading, atmospheric nitrate deposition for 17%, animal waste for 13%, and municipal waste for 11%. A nonlinear relationship between nitrate flux and fertilizer N inputs leads the model to identify a small but intensively cropped portion of the MRB as responsible for most agricultural nitrate runoff. Watersheds of the MRB with the highest rates of fertilizer runoff had the lowest amount of land enrolled in federal conservation programs. Our analysis suggests that scaling conservation effort in proportion to fertilizer use intensity could reduce agricultural nitrogen inputs to the Gulf of Mexico, and that the cost of doing so would be well within historic levels of federal funding for agriculture.