Detecting the order of population dynamics from time series: nonlinearity causes spurious diagnosis

Nonlinearity in drug pharmacokinetics is caused by various factors influencing how a drug is absorbed, distributed, metabolized, and excreted. Understanding these nonlinear processes is crucial for predicting drug behavior in the body and optimizing drug dosing regimens.
Nonlinear drug absorption can occur when the process is rate-limited by solubility, carrier-mediated transport systems, or saturation of the presystemic gut wall or hepatic metabolism. For instance, high doses of riboflavin...

In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:

Nonlinear or dose-dependent pharmacokinetics is a phenomenon that occurs when the pharmacokinetic parameters of certain drugs deviate from linear pharmacokinetics at higher doses. These drugs do not follow the expected first-order kinetics, where the rate of drug elimination is directly proportional to the drug concentration. Instead, they exhibit a nonlinear relationship, which can be attributed to several factors.
Nonlinearity can arise due to the saturation of plasma protein-binding or...

Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.However, realistic environmental conditions limit the number of...

Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data involves studying the behavior of drugs within diverse populations to understand their pharmacokinetic parameters. Traditional pharmacokinetic methods typically involve collecting samples from a few individuals and estimating these parameters. While these methods are commonly used, they have limitations in capturing the variability in drug response among individuals or heterogeneous populations. Population pharmacokinetics is employed to address these...

Population dynamics can be described mathematically by considering the population size P(t) as a function of time. The rate of change of the population is then represented by the derivative of P(t). A simple assumption is that the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population itself. This leads to an exponential growth model, where the population increases rapidly without bound. While this is a useful first approximation, it does not reflect realistic long-term...