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"I had a confidence epiphany!": Obstacles to combating post-identification confidence inflation.
Eric E Jones1, Kipling D Williams, Neil Brewer
1Psychological Sciences Building, Purdue University, 703 Third Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2081, USA. ejones@psych.purdue.edu
Law and Human Behavior
|September 18, 2007
Summary
Eyewitness confidence can inflate over time. A prompt confidence statement after lineup selection may not sufficiently reduce this "confidence inflation" effect on mock-juror decisions, especially if jurors attribute inflation to an epiphany.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Law and Legal Studies
- Forensic Science
Background:
- Eyewitness confidence often increases after a lineup identification, a phenomenon known as "confidence inflation."
- This inflation can bias mock-juror judgments regarding the defendant's guilt.
- Previous research suggests obtaining an immediate confidence statement may capture an unadulterated measure of initial confidence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effectiveness of post-identification confidence statements in mitigating "confidence inflation."
- To examine how mock-jurors' attributions for confidence inflation influence their judgments.
- To assess the practical implications for courtroom procedures.
Main Methods:
- Three experiments were conducted using mock-jurors.
- Participants were presented with eyewitness identification scenarios involving confidence inflation.
- The impact of immediate confidence statements and attributions for inflation on juror judgments was analyzed.
Main Results:
- Mock-jurors generally discredited eyewitnesses exhibiting confidence inflation, often lowering guilt probability ratings.
- A significant exception was observed when mock-jurors attributed the confidence inflation to an "epiphany."
- The effectiveness of post-identification confidence statements in reducing bias was found to be insufficient in certain contexts.
Conclusions:
- Post-identification confidence statements may not fully counteract the negative effects of "confidence inflation" on mock-juror decision-making.
- Juror attributions for the source of confidence inflation play a critical role in how they evaluate eyewitness testimony.
- The legal system may need alternative strategies to address "confidence inflation" in eyewitness evidence.
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