[The analysis of prognostic variables in 123 patients with multiple myeloma]

To assess the prognostic value of biological features and therapy-related factors in multiple myeloma (MM).

123 patients with newly diagnosed MM between January 1998 and May 2005 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Biological features at presentation and therapy-related factors were analysed. The overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and the distribution of OS and TTP were compared using log-rank test. Cox regression was used to identify the independent prognostic factors.

(1) The univariate analysis indicated that more immature plasma cells in bone marrow biopsy, C-reactive protein >8. Omg/L, CD117 expression, serum beta2-microglobulin (beta2-MG) (3.5 approximately 5.5 mg/L), abnormal cytogenetics aberration of chromosome 13 (Delta13), hypodiploid, poor response to chemotherapy, interferon(IFN) therapy less than 6 months were associated with shorter OS(P <0.05). Lytic bone lesions at presentation, more immature plasma cells in bone marrow biopsy, serum beta2-MG (3.5 approximately 5.5 mg/L), poor response to chemotherapy, and IFN therapy less than 6 months as well as abnormal cytogenetics, hypodiploid and Delta13 were associated with shorter TTP (P <0.05). (2) Multivariable COX analysis indicated IFN therapy more than 6 months was a protective factor for OS and TTP, and more immature plasma cells in bone marrow biopsy was an independent poor prognostic factor for TTP.

The morphology of myeloma cells is useful for assessing the prognosis. And IFN therapy more than 6 months could lengthen OS and TTP.