Relationship between the extent of T2 lesions and the onset of secondary progression in multiple sclerosis

J P Mostert1, J C de Groot, G S M Ramsaransing

  • 1Department of Neurology, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands. j.p.mostert@neuro.umcg.nl

Insights

The number and volume of T2 lesions on initial brain MRI scans predict secondary progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). More than 10 T2 lesions significantly increase the risk of developing progressive MS.

Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Radiology
  • Immunology

Background:

  • Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) can progress to a secondary progressive phase.
  • Early identification of patients at risk for progression is crucial for timely intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between baseline brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings and the development of secondary progressive MS.
  • To determine if T2 lesion load or brain atrophy predicts disease course conversion.

Main Methods:

  • Reanalysis of initial brain MRI scans from 90 relapsing-remitting MS patients.
  • Assessment of T2 lesion count, volume, and brain atrophy measures (bicaudate ratio, third ventricle width).
  • Longitudinal clinical follow-up (median 14 years) and statistical analysis using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses.

Main Results:

  • 36 out of 90 patients transitioned to a secondary progressive disease course.
  • Presence of >10 T2 lesions more than doubled the risk (HR 2.36).
  • Confluent T2 lesions further increased risk (HR 3.51); estimated T2 lesion load >800 mm³ also elevated risk (HR 2.11).
  • Brain atrophy measures were not predictive of progression.

Conclusions:

  • The extent of T2 lesions on initial MRI scans is a significant predictor of secondary progression in MS.
  • Early MRI lesion burden, particularly number and confluence, is more critical than atrophy for predicting disease course.
  • These findings may aid in identifying MS patients who require closer monitoring and earlier therapeutic strategies.

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