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Related Experiment Videos

Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable?

Gerard H Roe1, Marcia B Baker

  • 1Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. gerard@ess.washington.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 27, 2007
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Future climate change projections remain uncertain, with a persistent risk of significant global temperature increases. This inherent uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of the climate system itself.

Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Climate Modeling
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • Decades of research have not substantially reduced uncertainties in climate change projections.
  • Climate models and observational data show broad probability distributions for global mean temperature increases.
  • There is a small but significant probability of very large temperature rises.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the reasons behind persistent uncertainties in climate change projections.
  • To analyze the shape of probability distributions for global mean temperature increases.
  • To determine the sensitivity of these distributions to uncertainties in climate processes.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of existing climate models and observational data.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Derivation of an analytic form to describe the shape of probability distributions.
  • Assessment of the impact of reduced uncertainties in underlying climate processes.

    • Main Results:

    • The shape of probability distributions for temperature increases is an inherent property of the climate system.
    • A simple analytic form accurately fits published probability distributions.
    • The likelihood of substantial temperature increases is largely independent of reduced process uncertainties.

    Conclusions:

    • The broadness of climate projection uncertainty, including the tail risk of extreme warming, is a fundamental aspect of the climate system.
    • Reducing uncertainties in specific climate processes may not significantly narrow the overall probability distribution for future temperature increases.
    • This implies a need to plan for a wide range of potential warming scenarios.