A complementary modelling approach to manage uncertainty of computationally expensive models

The fact that the models applied in the 'water domain' are far from reality can be attributed to many reasons. In this context, a systematic analysis of uncertainties reflected by the model error can provide insight into the level of confidence in the model results and how to approach estimation of optimal model parameters. This paper discusses the four commonly used approaches for estimation of model parameters and suggests that an alternative complementary modelling approach should be considered in cases where the traditional model calibration gives limited results and particularly in cases where the computationally expensive models are concerned. It treats uncertainty as modelling the total discrepancy between the model and physical process. The proposed approach combines the results from a physically-based model and Support Vector Machine model into the final solution.