[Simulating and predicting of carbon cycling in typical wetland ecosystems]

A model was developed based on the theories of physiological ecology and turnover dynamics of organic carbon in wetland ecosystem. It aimed to illustrate the process and characteristics of carbon cycling and its potential changes under climate change scenarios in wetland ecosystems. The key environmental parameters to determine the effects of temperature, water-logging, and freeze-thaw were gained from the results of incubation experiments. Effects of CO2 fertilizing on the carbon sequestration and plant cover on organic carbon mineralization were also taken into account in this model. It was verified by the conventional observed meteorologic data in temperate and subtropical wetland ecosystems. Sensitivity analysis and prediction under climate change scenarios by this model were also discussed. There were significant correlations between the simulated and observed values of sediment respiration in temperate wetlands in Northeast China. It was estimated that the annual net carbon sequestration rate was about 104 g x m(-2) in permanently water-logged wetland ecosystems and 76 g x m(-2) in the seasonally water logged ones in temperate northeast China. The simulated value of the accumulated organic carbon density was within the changing range of the investigated data. The model was sensitive to the change of parameters of CO2 concentration and temperature. The potential changes in carbon cycling characteristics were also predicted under assumed climate change scenarios of A1B and A1FI. It indicated that the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and the wetland ecosystem became more active under climate change scenario of warming and increased CO2 concentration assuming no changing of hydrological condition. The net primary production (NPP) and the organic carbon density in temperate wetland ecosystems would increase under the scenario of doubled CO2 concentration and less than 2.5 degrees C increment of temperature. In this case wetland ecosystem would act as a net carbon sink of the atmosphere. However, it had no advantage to the carbon sequestration and accumulation in wetland ecosystems under the more warming scenarios. Under these more warming scenarios, the amount of increased NPP resulted from CO2 fertilizing and warming could not compensate the carbon loss from the accelerated respiration caused by warming. The organic carbon accumulated in seasonally water-logged wetland even would decrease under the assumed scenarios.