[Interval division, forecasting and decline tendency estimation model of malaria incidence in Xuzhou City]

This paper uses Grey Model to divide the malaria incidence of 1956-1986 into interval in Xuzhou City. The Grey forecasting GM (1,1) model is used to calculate the malaria incidence in 1987 and 1988. The accuracy of forecasting is 94.83% and 82.44% respectively. Furthermore, the Grey Verhulst model is used to fit the malaria incidence for the study of the declining tendency of vivax malaria incidence. Based on the fitting models, the decline tendency estimation models of vivax malaria are worked out.