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Updated: Jul 9, 2026
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
How to quantify sustainable development: a risk-based approach to water quality management
Amin Sarang1, Arman Vahedi, Abolfazl Shamsai
1Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran, Iran. amin.sarang@gmail.com
Environmental Management
|December 7, 2007
Summary
This study introduces a practical tool to quantify water resource sustainability using risk-based indicators like reliability and resilience. Applying this to the Karoun River demonstrates that pollution control and treatment significantly enhance sustainability.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Water Resource Management
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Quantifying sustainable development remains a challenge since its 1987 Brundtland report introduction.
- Lack of analytical tools hinders in-depth assessment of sustainability degree in policy options.
- Bridging the gap between sustainability theory and practice in water resources requires measuring relative sustainability.
Purpose of the Study:
- Develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the relative sustainability of water quality systems.
- Utilize risk-based indicators: reliability, resilience, and vulnerability.
- Apply the tool to the Karoun River, Iran's largest river.
Main Methods:
- Developed an integrated model with water quality simulation (DO-BOD) and risk-based indicator estimation.
- Employed First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for risk assessment.
- Created a waste load allocation model (Least Cost, Uniform Treatment) for optimal pollutant control costs.
Main Results:
- The risk-based approach, especially FORM, proved efficient for estimating relative sustainability.
- Significant improvements in sustainability values are achievable through dedicated treatment and pollution controls.
- Optimal pollutant control costs were identified for desired Dissolved Oxygen (DO) targets.
Conclusions:
- The developed risk-based framework effectively quantifies water quality system sustainability.
- Investment in treatment and stringent pollution control are crucial for enhancing water resource sustainability.
- Environmental protection requires a combination of technical advancements and shifts in public attitudes.
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