A simulation model of AIDS in San Francisco: I. Model formulation and parameter estimation
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H W Hethcote1, J W Van Ark, I M Longini
1Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa, Iowa City.
Mathematical Biosciences
|October 11, 1991
Abstract:
A model is formulated for the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the subsequent development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the population of homosexual men in San Francisco. The dynamic simulation model includes sexually very active and active subpopulations, migration, and a staged progression of HIV-infected persons to AIDS and death. Numerous data sources are used to estimate parameter values in the model. In a companion paper, simulations using the model and parameter estimates are found that are consistent with HIV and AIDS incidence data.