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Computer analysis of the shape of spread of epidemics on a grid
1Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.
Mathematical Biosciences
|December 1, 1991
Abstract:
Models concerned with the spatial features of epidemic spread are often defined in terms of a nearest-neighbor grid network. It has been strongly conjectured, and can be proved in certain cases, that the infected area has an asymptotically well-defined shape. The present work concerns computer analysis of the shape of spread of a discrete-time single-parameter infection process on an eight-neighbor lattice. Results of extensive simulation are displayed using up-to-date exploratory data analysis software, and various attempts at fitting functions to the probability surfaces are considered.