Unfinished business: target-based drug discovery

Area of Science:

• Pharmaceutical Science
• Drug Discovery and Development

Background:

• The pharmaceutical industry transitioned from phenotypic to target-based drug discovery in the early 1990s.
• This paradigm shift has coincided with a notable decline in the productivity of new drugs reaching the market.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the reasons behind the necessary shift in drug discovery approaches.
• To discuss the persistent challenges within both phenotypic and target-based drug discovery.
• To forecast future trends in pharmaceutical productivity.

Main Methods:

• Review and analysis of historical drug discovery strategies.
• Application of the S-curve theory to technological development in pharmaceuticals.
• Discussion of current challenges and future outlook in drug development.

Main Results:

• The transition to target-based discovery, while necessary, has faced significant hurdles.
• Both phenotypic and target-based approaches present unique, unresolved problems impacting drug development pipelines.
• The S-curve theory provides a framework for understanding productivity cycles in technological innovation.

Conclusions:

• An upturn in drug discovery productivity is anticipated within the next ten years.
• This projected increase may signal the beginning of a highly productive period, a 'golden age,' for pharmaceutical research.
• Addressing current challenges is crucial for realizing this future potential.