A comparison of three vulnerability models for the onset of substance use in a high-risk sample

The purpose of this prospective study was to compare the following three vulnerability models for early-onset substance use in a high-risk sample: the deviance proneness model, the negative affect regulation model, and a comprehensive model including both delinquency and negative affect.

The sample included 249 15- to 19-year-old adolescents (57% children of alcoholics) and their fathers, all of whom were seen at follow-up 5 years later. At both times of measurement, participants completed a clinical psychiatric interview and a battery of self-report questionnaires assessing temperament, negative affect, delinquency, and substance use.

Although all of the models fit the data well, the deviance proneness model was parsimonious and provided the best fit. Delinquency played a significant mediating role, whereas negative affect did not. Moreover, negative affect and delinquency were not significantly related to one another.

Results from this study suggest that the deviance proneness model may be a more useful theoretical framework than the negative affect regulation model or a comprehensive model when examining the onset of substance use, particularly in a high-risk sample.