Validating HRSA's nurse supply and demand models: a state-level perspective

In addition to federal initiatives, solutions to the nursing shortage must also be devised at the state level. Understanding the timing and severity of the nursing shortage in a particular state is paramount to devising appropriate solutions In 2005, the Health Resources and Services Administration released new versions of the Nurse Supply Model and Nurse Demand Model designed to project the supply of RNs and demand for RNs, LPNs, and nurse aides in the United States through the year 2020. The process used by two state-level analysts to project nurse supply and demand in North Carolina using the HRSA models is described. The authors conclude that the models work well for state-level forecasting but that users should carefully assess the default data provided with the model against independent data sources specific to their states.