Analysis of expansion patterns in 4-4.9 cm abdominal aortic aneurysms

Our objective was to analyze the growth pattern of 4-4.9 cm infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). We used an observational, longitudinal, prospective study design. We followed 4-4.9 cm AAAs with 6-monthly abdominal computed tomographic (CT) scans (January 1988-August 2004). AAA growth was defined as an increase in aortic diameter > or =2 mm in each surveillance period. We established the aortic expansion pattern in AAA with three or more CT scans as continuous, discontinuous. The latter includes at least one period of nongrowth (<2 mm/6 months). We studied the influence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), comorbidity, and AAA anatomical characteristics using the chi-squared test, t-test, life tables, and Kaplan-Meier for statistical analysis. We included 195 patients: 183 (93.8%) men, age 71 +/- 8.3 years (50-90). The follow-up period was 50 +/- 36.4 months (6.5-193.7). The growth pattern (n =131) was continuous in 15 (11.5%) and discontinuous in 116 (88.5%) AAA. The mean expansion rate was higher in AAAs with continuous expansion (7.92 +/- 3.74 vs. 2.74 +/- 2.94 mm/year, p < 0.0001). No CVRFs or comorbidity influenced the expansion pattern (p > 0.05). The eccentric thrombus was associated with a greater incidence of continuous growth (p = 0.05), with no influence of aortic calcification (p > 0.1). The expansion of 4-4.9 cm AAA is mostly irregular and unpredictable. We have not found any modifiable risk factors which influence their growth pattern. The eccentric distribution of the thrombus is associated with continuous expansion.