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An Affordable HIV-1 Drug Resistance Monitoring Method for Resource Limited Settings
Published on: March 30, 2014
Markers for predicting mortality in untreated HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings: a meta-analysis
Insights
CD4 counts are key indicators of mortality risk in untreated HIV-infected children. Malnutrition and anemia also significantly impact survival, especially in younger children, highlighting the need for comprehensive care.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases
- Global Health
- HIV/AIDS Research
Background:
- Untreated HIV infection poses significant short-term mortality risks in children, particularly in resource-limited settings.
- Accurate prognostic markers are crucial for timely intervention and improved survival rates.
- Existing research often lacks comprehensive data from diverse resource-limited environments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the prognostic value of laboratory and growth markers for short-term mortality in children with untreated HIV.
- To identify key predictors of mortality in resource-limited settings.
- To inform clinical management and public health strategies for pediatric HIV care.
Main Methods:
- A meta-analysis of individual longitudinal data from 10 studies (9 African, 1 Brazilian) involving children aged 12 months and older.
- Poisson regression models were used to estimate mortality risk within 12 months, adjusted for cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and study effects.
- Analysis focused on the most recent measurements of laboratory markers (e.g., CD4%, CD4 count, hemoglobin) and growth parameters (e.g., weight-for-age z-score).
Main Results:
- CD4% and CD4 cell count were the strongest predictors of mortality, followed by weight-for-age and hemoglobin.
- Severe malnutrition and anemia in young children (1-2 years) were associated with high mortality, irrespective of CD4 values.
- High CD4% or CD4 cell count predicted low mortality in children over 5 years or younger children without severe malnutrition or anemia.
Conclusions:
- CD4 measurements are the most critical indicator for mortality risk in HIV-infected children.
- Affordable and accessible CD4 testing is essential in resource-limited settings.
- Antiretroviral therapy initiation should consider weight-for-age and hemoglobin; preventing malnutrition and anemia is vital for improving pediatric HIV survival.
Objectives:
To evaluate the prognostic value of selected laboratory and growth markers on the short-term risk of mortality in untreated HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings.
Design:
A meta-analysis of individual longitudinal data on children aged 12 months onwards from 10 studies (nine African, one Brazilian in the 3Cs4kids collaboration).
Methods:
The risk of death within 12 months based on age and the most recent measurements of laboratory and growth markers was estimated using Poisson regression models, adjusted for cotrimoxazole prophylaxis use and study effects.
Results:
A total of 2510 children contributed 357 deaths during 3769 child-years-at-risk, with 81% follow-up occurring after start of cotrimoxazole. At first measurement, median age was 4.0 years (interquartile range, 2.2-7.0 years), median CD4% was 15% and weight-for-age z-score -1.9. CD4% and CD4 cell count were the strongest predictors of mortality, followed by weight-for-age and haemoglobin. After adjusting for these markers, the effects of total lymphocyte count and BMI-for-age were relatively small. Young children who were both severely malnourished and anaemic had high mortality regardless of CD4 values, particularly those aged 1-2 years. By contrast, high CD4% or CD4 cell count values predicted low mortality level amongst either children older than 5 years or those younger with neither severe malnutrition nor anaemia.
Conclusions:
CD4 measurements are the most important indicator of mortality and wider access to affordable tests is needed in resource-limited settings. Evaluation of antiretroviral initiation in children also needs to consider weight-for-age and haemoglobin. Prevention and treatment of malnutrition and anaemia is integral to HIV paediatric care and could improve survival.
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