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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 9, 2026

Cities As Interfaces of Zoonotic Hazard Emergence: Development of the New York City Tick and Wildlife Urban Surveillance System

Cities As Interfaces of Zoonotic Hazard Emergence: Development of the New York City Tick and Wildlife Urban Surveillance System

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Benchmark analysis for quantifying urban vulnerability to terrorist incidents.

Walter W Piegorsch¹, Susan L Cutter, Frank Hardisty

¹Interdisciplinary Program in Statistics, BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. piegorsch@math.arizona.edu

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

|December 21, 2007

Summary

A new vulnerability index accurately predicts terrorist attacks and casualties in U.S. urban centers. This quantitative methodology helps identify high-risk areas for improved counter-terrorism strategies.

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Last Updated: Jul 9, 2026

Cities As Interfaces of Zoonotic Hazard Emergence: Development of the New York City Tick and Wildlife Urban Surveillance System

Cities As Interfaces of Zoonotic Hazard Emergence: Development of the New York City Tick and Wildlife Urban Surveillance System

Published on: March 10, 2026

Area of Science:

Social science research
Urban studies
Risk assessment

Background:

Terrorist attacks pose significant threats to urban centers.
Existing methods for assessing urban vulnerability to terrorism lack quantitative precision.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and validate a quantitative methodology for characterizing the vulnerability of U.S. urban centers to terrorist attack.
To establish a place-based vulnerability index and analyze its relationship with terrorist incidents and casualties.

Main Methods:

Development of a place-based vulnerability index.
Utilization of a database of terrorist incidents and human casualties.
Application of generalized linear statistical models.
Adaptation of benchmark analytic technologies from toxicological risk assessment.

Main Results:

The place-based vulnerability metric significantly predicts both the incidence of terrorist events and the occurrence of human casualties in urban centers.
The benchmark analytic approach effectively distinguishes between high and low levels of urban vulnerability to terrorism.
The methodology demonstrates flexibility in translating from biological risk assessment to social science applications.

Conclusions:

The developed quantitative methodology provides a robust tool for assessing urban terrorism vulnerability.
The findings support the use of place-based metrics and adapted risk assessment technologies for counter-terrorism planning.
This approach offers a flexible framework for understanding and mitigating social risks in urban environments.