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Predicting somatic cell count standard violations based on herd's bulk tank somatic cell count. Part I: Analyzing

J M Lukas¹, J K Reneau, M L Kinsel

¹Department of Animal Science, University of Minnesota, St. Paul 55108, USA.

Journal of Dairy Science

|December 22, 2007

Summary

Dairy herds with higher bulk tank somatic cell counts (SCC) in summer and smaller herds face greater odds of exceeding SCC standards. A predictive grid helps manage SCC levels for quality premiums.

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Area of Science:

Dairy Science
Animal Health
Food Quality

Background:

Bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC) is a key indicator of dairy herd udder health and milk quality.
Predicting and managing SCC levels is crucial for meeting milk quality standards and premium payment goals.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the relationship between bulk tank SCC mean and variation (sigma) and the probability of exceeding established SCC standards.
To identify factors influencing SCC levels, including seasonality and herd size.
To develop a predictive tool for SCC standard violations.

Main Methods:

Collected bulk tank SCC data from 1,501 dairy herds over 24 months.
Estimated monthly SCC mean and sigma for each herd.
Utilized Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA to compare monthly and herd production category differences.
Employed logistic regression to model the odds of exceeding SCC standards based on month and herd size.
Constructed a probability grid for predicting SCC standard violations.

Main Results:

SCC mean and sigma varied significantly by month, with higher levels observed during summer months.
Smaller herds exhibited significantly higher odds of exceeding SCC standards compared to larger herds.
Seasonal effects and herd size were significant predictors of SCC standard violations.

Conclusions:

Seasonal variations and smaller herd size increase the risk of exceeding bulk tank SCC standards.
A predictive grid based on monthly SCC mean and sigma can forecast the probability of future violations.
This tool can aid in proactive management to achieve milk quality goals and consistent performance.