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Related Experiment Videos

Economic decision analysis model of a paratuberculosis test and cull program.

M T Collins1, I R Morgan

  • 1Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin, Madison 53706.

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association
|December 15, 1991
PubMed
Summary

A test and cull strategy for paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) is profitable for dairy herds when disease prevalence exceeds 6%. Key factors include test sensitivity, specificity, and cost, alongside milk production loss.

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Dairy Herd Management
  • Economic Analysis

Background:

  • Paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) poses significant economic challenges to commercial dairy operations.
  • Effective control strategies are crucial for mitigating disease spread and economic losses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a decision tree model for evaluating the profitability of a test-and-cull program for paratuberculosis.
  • To identify the threshold prevalence at which a test-and-cull program becomes economically beneficial.

Main Methods:

  • A spreadsheet program was developed to conduct decision tree analysis, incorporating diagnostic test parameters (sensitivity, specificity, cost) and economic outcomes.
  • Reed-Frost disease modeling was used to predict disease transmission.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Sensitivity analysis was performed on key variables, including pretest prevalence, test characteristics, and disease-related costs.

    • Main Results:

    • A test-and-cull program becomes profitable at a paratuberculosis prevalence of 6% or higher, given specific test parameters (50% sensitivity, 98% specificity, $4/cow cost) and a 6% milk production decrease.
    • Higher test specificities (>98%) showed minimal impact on the profitability threshold for tests with 50% sensitivity.
    • Test sensitivity had a minor effect on the threshold, while test cost significantly influenced profitability.

    Conclusions:

    • The profitability of a paratuberculosis test-and-cull program is highly dependent on disease prevalence, test performance, and associated costs.
    • Economic modeling provides valuable insights for dairy producers in managing Johne's disease.
    • Optimizing diagnostic test selection and understanding cost-benefit thresholds are essential for effective herd management.