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Investigating transmission in a two-wave epidemic of Chikungunya fever, Réunion Island

P-Y Boëlle1, G Thomas, E Vergu

  • 1Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Parisó, UMR S 707, Paris, France. boelle@U707.jussieu.fr

Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.)
|January 4, 2008
PubMed

Insights

Chikungunya fever epidemics can vary greatly in size, but the virus's transmission potential remained consistent. This suggests increased virulence wasn't the cause, and high attack rates are possible without intervention.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Vector-borne diseases
  • Virology

Background:

  • Chikungunya fever is a mosquito-borne viral illness.
  • Réunion Island experienced a large epidemic in 2005-2006 with two distinct waves.
  • The second wave saw a significantly higher number of cases than the first.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the transmission dynamics of Chikungunya fever during the 2005-2006 epidemic.
  • To compare the transmission potential (reproduction number) between the two epidemic waves.
  • To investigate factors contributing to the difference in epidemic magnitude.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized newly developed epidemiological tools adapted for vector-borne diseases.
  • Calculated the reproduction number (R0) for each wave of the epidemic.
  • Estimated R0 based on incubation duration and mosquito lifespan.

Main Results:

  • The reproduction number (R0) remained similar between the two epidemic waves.
  • The best estimate for R0 was 3.7, with a possible range of 2 to 11.
  • The difference in epidemic magnitude was not explained by increased virulence.

Conclusions:

  • Increased virulence is not necessary to explain the differing magnitudes of Chikungunya fever epidemics.
  • The attack rate for Chikungunya fever can exceed 50% in the absence of public health interventions.
  • Epidemiological tools can effectively assess transmission potential in vector-borne disease outbreaks.

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