Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Physiology
• Bioenergetics

Background:

• Predicting species' ranges under climate change is crucial for conservation.
• Existing correlative climate envelope models have limitations in capturing species' adaptive potential.
• Understanding geographic variation in traits is key to predicting responses to environmental change.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a dynamic bioenergetic model coupling individual energetics and population dynamics.
• To predict current and future lizard ranges, considering climate warming.
• To examine how geographic variation in traits influences species' ranges and adaptive capacity.

Main Methods:

• Developed a dynamic bioenergetic model based on morphology, life history, and thermal physiology.
• Applied the model to five populations of Sceloporus undulatus and Sceloporus graciosus.
• Compared model predictions with actual current ranges to identify factors influencing occupied ranges.

Main Results:

• The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a 3°C warming scenario.
• A northward shift in the northern range boundary is predicted for all studied populations and species.
• The magnitude of the northward range shift is dependent on organism traits and life histories.

Conclusions:

• Dynamic bioenergetic models offer more accurate predictions of species' range shifts under climate change than correlative models.
• Organismal traits and life histories significantly influence range dynamics in response to warming.
• Dispersal limitations, species interactions, and habitat requirements modulate occupied ranges within thermally suitable areas.