Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Epidemiology
• Biometeorology

Background:

• Long-term temperature trends in Moscow show significant variations.
• Understanding the impact of temperature on acute mortality is crucial for public health.
• Identifying vulnerable populations is essential for targeted interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the relationship between daily temperature fluctuations and acute mortality in Moscow.
• To identify specific population groups (by age and cause of death) vulnerable to temperature changes.
• To quantify the mortality risks associated with both increases and decreases in temperature.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of long-term temperature data and acute mortality records in Moscow.
• Statistical modeling to assess the V-shaped mortality-temperature relationship.
• Lag analysis to determine the time frame of mortality response to temperature changes.

Main Results:

• A V-shaped mortality-temperature relationship was observed, with a minimum mortality point around 18°C.
• Increases in temperature above 18°C led to higher mortality from non-accidental causes, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases.
• Decreases in temperature from 18°C to -10°C also significantly increased mortality across all studied causes.
• Mortality risks were substantially higher (13-30%) for individuals aged 75 years and older.
• Increased daily temperature variation also correlated with higher non-accidental mortality.

Conclusions:

• Both extreme heat and cold pose significant risks to public health in Moscow, impacting cardiovascular and respiratory systems.
• Older adults (75+ years) are a particularly vulnerable demographic requiring focused protection strategies.
• Daily temperature variability is an independent risk factor for mortality, necessitating consideration in climate adaptation planning.