Risk stratification for primary implantation of a cardioverter-defibrillator in patients with ischemic left

Ilan Goldenberg1, Anant K Vyas, W Jackson Hall

  • 1Department of Medicine, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, New York 14642, USA. Ilan.Goldenberg@heart.rochester.edu

Insights

A new risk score helps identify patients with low ejection fraction who benefit most from an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). The score shows ICDs are most effective in intermediate-risk patients, not those at very low or very high risk.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Medical Devices
  • Clinical Risk Stratification

Background:

  • Current guidelines recommend implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention in patients with low ejection fraction (EF).
  • The uniform benefit of ICDs in this low EF population is uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a simple clinical risk stratification score for primary ICD therapy.
  • To assess ICD benefit across different risk categories in patients with low EF.

Main Methods:

  • A best-subset proportional-hazards regression model was used.
  • The analysis included patients from the Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial (MADIT)-II conventional therapy arm, excluding very high-risk (VHR) patients.
  • Risk score categories were defined, and ICD benefit was evaluated within these strata and in VHR patients.

Main Results:

  • A 5-factor risk score was developed (NYHA class, age, BUN, QRS duration, atrial fibrillation).
  • Mortality rates varied significantly by risk score in the conventional therapy group (8% for 0 factors, 28% for >=1 factor, 43% for VHR).
  • ICD therapy reduced mortality by 49% in patients with >=1 risk factor, but showed no benefit in patients with 0 risk factors or VHR patients.

Conclusions:

  • A U-shaped pattern of ICD efficacy was observed in the low EF population.
  • Intermediate-risk patients (>=1 risk factor) demonstrated the most pronounced benefit from ICD therapy.
  • ICD efficacy was attenuated in both lower-risk (0 risk factors) and higher-risk (VHR) patient subsets.
Abstract

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