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Field-Based Thermal Physiology Assay: Cold Shock Recovery under Ambient Conditions
07:54

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Published on: March 9, 2021

Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.

Cagan H Sekercioglu1, Stephen H Schneider, John P Fay

  • 1Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. cagan@stanford.edu

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
|February 8, 2008
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Elevational range limits significantly predict extinction risk for landbirds. Climate change and habitat loss could drive hundreds of extinctions by 2100, impacting many species not currently considered threatened.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Species' elevational range limits are critical factors influencing extinction risk.
  • Understanding these limits is crucial for predicting biodiversity loss due to environmental changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the impact of elevational range limitations on landbird extinction risk.
  • To project future extinction scenarios for landbirds under climate change and habitat loss.

Main Methods:

  • Modeled extinction risk based on elevational range size for 87% of all bird species.
  • Integrated elevational ranges with four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios and projected surface warming (2.8°C).
  • Estimated climate-induced changes in species distributions and extinction rates.

Main Results:

  • Elevational range limitation explained 97% of variation in extinction risk probability.
  • Projected 400-550 landbird extinctions and 2150 additional species at risk by 2100 under intermediate warming.
  • Each degree of warming nonlinearly increased bird extinctions by 100-500 species.

Conclusions:

  • Elevational limits are robust predictors of extinction risk, highlighting vulnerability to climate change.
  • Urgent need for high-resolution data on elevational range shifts to refine extinction estimates.
  • Conservation assessments can be improved by incorporating elevational limits to identify vulnerable terrestrial species.