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Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system.

Timothy M Lenton1, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler

  • 1School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom. t.lenton@uea.ac.uk

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|February 9, 2008
PubMed
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Climate tipping elements are Earth system components that may cross critical thresholds. This study identifies key elements, assesses their sensitivity to global warming, and explores early warning systems for climate tipping points.

Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • A tipping point signifies a critical threshold where a small perturbation causes significant system change.
  • Tipping elements are large-scale Earth systems susceptible to crossing these critical thresholds.
  • Anthropogenic forcing poses risks to climate stability, necessitating identification of potential tipping elements.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and define the concept of "tipping elements" within the Earth system.
  • To identify and evaluate policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system.
  • To assess the proximity of tipping points for these elements and explore early warning systems.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review and synthesis of existing research on climate tipping points.

Related Experiment Videos

  • International workshop to compile a short list of potential tipping elements.
  • Expert elicitation to rank sensitivity to global warming and assess mechanistic uncertainties.

    • Main Results:

    • Identification of a list of critical tipping elements in the Earth system.
    • Assessment of their potential tipping points and sensitivity to global warming.
    • Evaluation of uncertainties surrounding the physical mechanisms of tipping.

    Conclusions:

    • Several policy-relevant tipping elements exist within the climate system.
    • Understanding their tipping points is crucial for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
    • Development of early warning systems is feasible for detecting proximity to some tipping points.