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The urban transformation of the developing world
1Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA. mmontgomery@notes.cc.sunysb.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 9, 2008
Summary
Developing nations in Asia and Africa will soon achieve majority urban populations, mirroring Latin America. This demographic shift necessitates improved data and forecasting methods for urban planning.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Urban Studies
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Global population distribution is shifting towards urban centers.
- Developing regions in Asia and Africa are projected to undergo significant urbanization.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the projected urban demographic transformation in developing countries.
- To forecast urban population aggregates for policy guidance.
Main Methods:
- Review and synthesis of demographic data and estimates.
- Analysis of urban population trends and forecasts.
Main Results:
- Asia and Africa are expected to join Latin America in having a majority urban population within 20-30 years.
- Urban population aggregates are projected to increase substantially in these regions.
Conclusions:
- Demographic research must refine data sets with spatial factors and vital rates.
- Improvements in forecasting methodologies are crucial for effective urban policy-making.
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