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Of mice and men: asymmetric interactions between Bordetella pathogen species
O Restif1, D N Wolfe, E M Goebel
1Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 OES, UK. or226@cam.ac.uk
Abstract:
In a recent experiment, we found that mice previously infected with Bordetella pertussis were not protected against a later infection with Bordetella parapertussis, while primary infection with B. parapertussis conferred cross-protection. This challenges the common assumption made in most mathematical models for pathogenic strain dynamics that cross-immunity between strains is symmetric. Here we investigate the potential consequences of this pattern on the circulation of the two pathogens in human populations. To match the empirical dominance of B. pertussis, we made the additional assumption that B. parapertussis pays a cost in terms of reduced fitness. We begin by exploring the range of parameter values that allow the coexistence of the two pathogens, with or without vaccination. We then track the dynamics of the system following the introduction of anti-pertussis vaccination. Our results suggest that (1) in order for B. pertussis to be more prevalent than B. parapertussis, the former must have a strong competitive advantage, possibly in the form of higher infectivity, and (2) because of asymmetric cross-immunity, the introduction of anti-pertussis vaccination should have little effect on the absolute prevalence of B. parapertussis. We discuss the evidence supporting these predictions, and the potential relevance of this model for other pathogens.
Insights
Asymmetric cross-immunity between Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis challenges existing models. Mathematical modeling suggests pertussis vaccination may not impact parapertussis prevalence due to this immune pattern.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis are related bacterial pathogens causing whooping cough.
- Previous infection with B. pertussis does not protect against B. parapertussis, but B. parapertussis infection confers cross-protection.
- This asymmetric cross-immunity contradicts assumptions in many mathematical models of pathogen strain dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the population-level consequences of asymmetric cross-immunity between B. pertussis and B. parapertussis.
- To model the circulation dynamics of these two pathogens in human populations, considering vaccination.
- To explore conditions favoring the dominance of B. pertussis and the impact of vaccination on pathogen prevalence.
Main Methods:
- Developed a mathematical model incorporating asymmetric cross-immunity and fitness costs for B. parapertussis.
- Analyzed parameter ranges for the coexistence of both pathogens, with and without vaccination.
- Simulated the impact of introducing anti-pertussis vaccination on pathogen dynamics.
Main Results:
- B. pertussis dominance requires a significant competitive advantage (e.g., higher infectivity) over B. parapertussis.
- Asymmetric cross-immunity leads to minimal impact of anti-pertussis vaccination on the absolute prevalence of B. parapertussis.
- The model explores conditions for pathogen coexistence and the effects of vaccination strategies.
Conclusions:
- Asymmetric cross-immunity is a critical factor in understanding the dynamics of B. pertussis and B. parapertussis.
- Pertussis vaccination strategies may need re-evaluation given the limited effect on B. parapertussis prevalence.
- The findings have implications for modeling other pathogen systems with similar cross-immunity patterns.
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