[Model for estimation of cardiovascular risk in Norway]

Guidelines for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) include calculation of total risk. A new risk model based on updated Norwegian data is needed, as the European SCORE function overestimates the risk of fatal CVD in Norway. NORRISK for 10-year CVD mortality is presented. It includes gender, age and smoking and levels of systolic blood pressure and serumtotal cholesterol.

NORRISK is based on national age- and sex specific mortality rates from Statistics Norway (1999-2003), mean levels of risk factors from Norwegian Health Surveys (2000-03) and relative risks from mortality follow-up of Norwegian Cardiovascular Screenings (1985-2002). The model is adjusted to the mortality level in the period 1999-2003 and is compared with the SCORE model.

10-year risk estimates calculated from NORRISK fall between SCORE high- and low-risk estimates and increase strongly with age. Very few persons below 50 years of age have a 10-year risk above 5% (European limit for high risk). More than half of men aged 60 years have estimated risks above this limit, while only 7% of 60-year-old women exceed the limit. Even if the risk limit is reduced to 1% for younger age groups, very few women below 50 years of age have risks above the limit.

NORRISK is more adapted to the current situation in Norway than the SCORE model and may be a useful and relevant tool in Norwegian clinical practice.