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Updated: Jul 7, 2026
10:41
A Tuberculosis Molecular Bacterial Load Assay (TB-MBLA)
Published on: April 30, 2020
Estimating tuberculosis case mortality in England and Wales, 2001-2002
J P Crofts1, R Pebody, A Grant
1Department of Respiratory Diseases, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, UK.
Summary
National tuberculosis (TB) surveillance underestimates TB case fatality. Linking TB case reports with death registrations provides a more accurate mortality estimate, crucial for public health.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Surveillance
Background:
- National tuberculosis (TB) surveillance systems are crucial for monitoring disease burden and outcomes.
- Accurate case fatality rate (CFR) estimation is essential for understanding TB's impact and guiding interventions.
- Previous estimates may not fully capture all TB-related deaths.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine a more precise 12-month tuberculosis case fatality rate (CFR) among individuals reported to the national surveillance system.
- To assess the completeness of death ascertainment within the existing national TB surveillance framework.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data linkage between national TB surveillance records and mortality information from the NHS central register and ONS death registrations.
- Employed capture-recapture methodology to identify and estimate unrecorded deaths.
- Analyzed data from England and Wales between 2001-2002.
Main Results:
- Identified 1169 deaths among 13176 TB cases, yielding a CFR of 8.9%.
- Data linkage uncovered an additional 255 deaths not initially recorded by TB surveillance.
- Capture-recapture analysis estimated 61 further unrecorded deaths.
Conclusions:
- National TB surveillance significantly underestimates tuberculosis-related mortality.
- Implementing real-time data linkage between TB case reporting and death registrations is vital for accurate and timely CFR estimation.
- Improved data integration can enhance public health response to tuberculosis.
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