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Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change.

Tien Ming Lee1, Walter Jetz

  • 1Ecology, Behavior and Evolution Section, Division of Biological Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0116, USA.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|February 28, 2008
PubMed
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Global protected areas face significant future threats from climate and land-use change. Conservation planning must urgently incorporate these projected changes to protect biodiversity effectively, especially in high-risk tropical and subtropical regions.

Area of Science:

  • Conservation Biology
  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Ecology

Background:

  • Global biodiversity is critically threatened by anthropogenic climate and land-use change.
  • Protected areas are vital for biodiversity conservation but often lack future-oriented planning.
  • Current conservation strategies are inadequately prepared for projected global environmental shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the global protected area network's exposure to projected climate and land-use change.
  • To assess conservation threats in relation to regional conservation value and capacity.
  • To highlight the inadequacy of existing conservation prioritization methods.

Main Methods:

  • Quantified exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Related projected threats to biogeographic and geopolitical conservation value and capacity.
  • Analyzed geographical patterns of past and forecasted land-cover change.

    • Main Results:

    • Past land-use impacts poorly predict future changes, indicating flawed conservation templates.
    • Highest conservation risk is projected for high latitudes (climate change) and tropics/subtropics (land-use change).
    • High-value, high-risk nations are often wealthy (high latitude), while high-value, low-capacity nations are often poorer (low latitude).

    Conclusions:

    • Future environmental changes must be integrated into protected area conservation planning.
    • New reserves are urgently needed in specific target regions.
    • An expanded North-South resource transfer is crucial for maximizing biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation.