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Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points
1Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche e Matematiche S. Vianelli-Università di Palermo, viale delle Scienze, Palermo, Italy. vmuggeo@dssm.unipa.it
Abstract:
We present a model for estimation of temperature effects on mortality that is able to capture jointly the typical features of every temperature-death relationship, that is, nonlinearity and delayed effect of cold and heat over a few days. Using a segmented approximation along with a doubly penalized spline-based distributed lag parameterization, estimates and relevant standard errors of the cold- and heat-related risks and the heat tolerance are provided. The model is applied to data from Milano, Italy.
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