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The association between the timing of valve surgery and 6-month mortality in left-sided infective endocarditis
I M Tleyjeh1, J M Steckelberg, G Georgescu
1Division of Infectious Diseases, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. tleyjeh.imad@mayo.edu
Insights
For left-sided infective endocarditis (IE), delaying valve surgery beyond 11 days showed a protective trend against 6-month mortality. Multicollinearity issues may have impacted definitive conclusions on optimal surgical timing.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Surgical Outcomes
Background:
- Left-sided infective endocarditis (IE) poses significant mortality risks.
- The optimal timing for valve surgery in IE patients remains unclear.
- Early surgical intervention is often favored, but evidence for its benefit is debated.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between the timing of valve surgery after IE diagnosis and 6-month mortality.
- To determine if earlier surgery in left-sided IE correlates with improved survival outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort analysis of 546 patients with left-sided IE undergoing valve surgery within 30 days of diagnosis.
- Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the association between time from IE diagnosis to surgery and 6-month mortality.
- Propensity score adjustment was employed to account for differences in early versus late surgical timing.
Main Results:
- Of 129 patients who underwent surgery, 27.2% died within 6 months.
- Univariate analysis indicated a protective effect of longer time to surgery (HR 0.93 per day, p=0.03).
- Multivariate analysis showed a non-significant trend towards protection with longer time to surgery (aHR 0.97), potentially due to multicollinearity between time to surgery and propensity score (r=-0.63).
Conclusions:
- While univariate analysis suggested a protective effect of delayed surgery, this significance was lost in multivariate analysis.
- Multicollinearity between surgical timing and propensity score may have limited the ability to establish the independent effect of time to surgery.
- Further research is needed to clarify the optimal surgical timing for left-sided IE to balance risks and benefits.
Objective:
The optimal timing of valve surgery in left-sided infective endocarditis (IE) is undefined. We aimed to examine the association between the timing of valve surgery after IE diagnosis and 6-month mortality among patients with left-sided IE.
Methods:
We analysed data from a retrospective cohort of patients with left-sided IE who underwent valve surgery within 30 days of diagnosis at a tertiary centre. The association between time from IE diagnosis to surgery and all-cause 6-month mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards modelling after adjusting for the propensity score (to undergo surgery 0-11 days vs >11 days, median time, after IE diagnosis).
Results:
Of 546 left-sided IE cases seen between 1980 and 1998, 129 (23.6%) underwent valve surgery within 30 days of diagnosis. The median time between IE diagnosis and surgery was 11 days (range 1-30). There were 35/129 (27.2%) deaths in the surgical group. Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, propensity score and longer time to surgery (in days) were associated with unadjusted HRs of (1.15, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.28, per 0.10 unit change, p = 0.009) and (0.93; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.99, per day, p = 0.03), respectively. In multivariate analysis, a longer time to surgery was associated with an adjusted HR (0.97; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.03). The propensity score and time from diagnosis to surgery had a correlation coefficient of r = -0.63, making multicollinearity an issue in the multivariable model.
Conclusion:
On univariate analysis, a longer time to surgery showed a significant protective effect for the outcome of mortality. After adjusting for the propensity to undergo surgery early versus late, a longer time to surgery was no longer significant but remained in the protective direction. Multicollinearity between the time to surgery and the propensity score may have hindered our ability to detect the independent effect of time to surgery.
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