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Explaining Usutu virus dynamics in Austria: model development and calibration.
Franz Rubel1, Katharina Brugger, Michael Hantel
1Department of Natural Sciences, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna (VUW), Veterinärplatz 1, A-1210 Vienna, Austria. franz.rubel@vu-wien.ac.at
Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|March 4, 2008
Summary
Usutu virus (USUV) dynamics in birds are influenced by climate and bird immunity. A model accurately predicted USUV outbreaks in Austria, revealing low detection rates in monitoring programs.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Virology
- Epidemiology
- Ecological Modeling
Background:
- Usutu virus (USUV), an African flavivirus, emerged in Europe in 2001.
- USUV primarily affects avian populations, causing high mortality in birds like blackbirds.
- Mammalian infections are rare, similar to West Nile virus (WNV).
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the transmission dynamics of USUV.
- To investigate the influence of avian immunity and climate on USUV spread.
- To validate the model against observed USUV outbreaks in Austria.
Main Methods:
- Developed a simulation model incorporating seasonal mosquito and bird populations.
- Integrated climate data to determine temperature-dependent mosquito development and virus incubation.
- Used observed dead bird data from Austria (2001-2005) for model calibration and validation.
Main Results:
- The model successfully reproduced USUV outbreak patterns in Austria, including the 2003 peak.
- Simulations indicated that >70% of birds developed immunity, but this wanes within years.
- Estimated annual basic reproduction numbers (R0) ranged from 0.54 to 1.35.
Conclusions:
- Climate and avian immunity are key drivers of USUV transmission dynamics.
- The Austrian USUV monitoring program detects only a small fraction (0.2%) of USUV-related blackbird deaths.
- The presented model quantitatively describes USUV epidemiological processes.
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