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Managing demographic risk.

Rainer Strack1, Jens Baier, Anders Fahlander

  • 1Boston Consulting Group, USA. strack.rainer@bcg.com

Harvard Business Review
|March 5, 2008
PubMed
Summary

The aging workforce presents capacity and productivity risks for companies. Proactive assessment and strategic interventions, like training and accommodations, are crucial for mitigating labor shortages and maintaining productivity.

Area of Science:

  • Human Resources Management
  • Organizational Behavior
  • Demographics

Background:

  • Developed nations face a rapidly aging workforce, leading to potential labor shortages and knowledge loss.
  • Older employees may experience declining productivity, particularly in physically demanding roles, posing a risk to businesses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide managers with a systematic approach to assess and address the dual threats of workforce aging: capacity risk and productivity risk.
  • To guide companies in developing strategies to mitigate the impact of an aging workforce on their operations and competitiveness.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzing employee age distribution to identify high-risk age brackets and projecting future workforce demographics over 15 years.
  • Incorporating strategic business moves and external labor market supply into workforce planning.

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  • Case study analysis of RWE Power's proactive measures to address anticipated talent gaps.

    • Main Results:

    • Companies can identify potential labor shortages and productivity declines by studying age demographics and future trends.
    • Proactive strategies, including training, recruitment, retention, and workplace adjustments, can effectively close talent gaps.
    • Implementing measures like accommodations, revised compensation, incentives, and health management can sustain older worker productivity.

    Conclusions:

    • Early identification and strategic management of an aging workforce are essential for business continuity and competitive advantage.
    • Companies must move beyond headcount reduction to actively manage workforce capacity and productivity risks.
    • A systematic approach to workforce planning, considering demographic shifts, is critical for long-term organizational success.