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Indication of multiscaling in the volatility return intervals of stock markets
Fengzhong Wang1, Kazuko Yamasaki, Shlomo Havlin
1Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA.
Abstract:
The distribution of the return intervals tau between price volatilities above a threshold height q for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined nonlinear mechanism, we investigate intraday data sets of 500 stocks which consist of Standard & Poor's 500 index. We show that the cumulative distribution of return intervals has systematic deviations from scaling. We support this finding by studying the m -th moment micro_{m} identical with(tau/tau);{m};{1/m} , which show a certain trend with the mean interval tau . We generate surrogate records using the Schreiber method, and find that their cumulative distributions almost collapse to a single curve and moments are almost constant for most ranges of tau . Those substantial differences suggest that nonlinear correlations in the original volatility sequence account for the deviations from a single scaling law. We also find that the original and surrogate records exhibit slight tendencies for short and long tau , due to the discreteness and finite size effects of the records, respectively. To avoid as possible those effects for testing the multiscaling behavior, we investigate the moments in the range 10
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