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Updated: Jul 6, 2026

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
A comparison of DEMETRA individual QSARs with an index for evaluation of uncertainty
Chiara Porcelli1, Alessandra Roncaglioni, Antonio Chana
1Istituto di ricerche farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via La Masa 19, 20156 Milan, Italy.
Abstract:
Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) urgently need to be applied in regulatory programs. Many QSAR models can predict the effect of a wide range of substances to different endpoints, particularly in the case of ecotoxicity, but it is difficult to choose the most appropriate model on the basis of the requirements of the application. During the EC-funded project DEMETRA (www.demetra-tox.net) a huge number of QSAR models have been developed for the prediction of different ecotoxicological endpoints. DEMETRA individual models on rainbow trout LC50 after 96 h, water flea LC50 after 48 h and honey bee LD50 after 48 h have been used as a QSAR database to test the advantages of a new index for evaluating model uncertainty. This index takes into consideration the number of outliers (weighted on the total number of compounds) and their root mean square error. Application on the DEMETRA QSAR database indicated that the index can identify the models with the best performance with regard to outliers, and can be used, together with other classical statistical measures (e.g., the squared correlation coefficient), to support the evaluation of QSAR models.
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