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The multistate life table method: an application to contraceptive switching behavior
Tzy-Mey Kuo1, C M Suchindran, Helen P Koo
1Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA. mkuo@rti.org
Demography
|April 9, 2008
Summary
Multistate life tables (MSLT) analyze complex demographic transitions. New methods enable MSLT computation from censored data, revealing frequent switching between contraceptive methods and non-use, leading to unintended pregnancies.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Biostatistics
- Sociology
Background:
- Demographic behaviors involve complex, time-dependent transitions between multiple states.
- Event history data, often censored, are collected through surveys.
- Multistate life table (MSLT) methods are underutilized due to a lack of computational guidance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide practical methods for computing MSLT quantities from censored event-history data.
- To enable a comprehensive analysis of complex demographic transitions.
- To apply these methods to understand contraceptive use patterns.
Main Methods:
- Development of computational methods for MSLT analysis.
- Calculation of transition intensities and probabilities.
- Estimation of state occupancy probabilities, standard errors, average time in states, and average number of visits to states using censored event-history data.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated application of MSLT methods to contraceptive use data.
- Identified high levels of switching between barrier methods and non-use.
- Quantified the association between frequent method switching and unintended pregnancy rates.
Conclusions:
- The developed methods facilitate the application of MSLT in demographic research.
- Frequent switching in contraceptive methods, particularly between barrier methods and non-use, is a significant factor contributing to unintended pregnancies.
- MSLT analysis offers valuable insights into dynamic demographic behaviors.
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