Comparisons between five self-administered instruments predicting sick leaves in a 4-year follow-up

Area of Science:

• Occupational Health
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Sick leave is a significant concern for both employees and employers.
• Predicting future sick leave can aid in proactive health management and resource allocation.
• Various self-rating instruments exist, but their comparative predictive value for sick leave is not fully understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare the predictive ability of five self-rating instruments for future sick leave.
• To assess the instruments' effectiveness in predicting both no sick leave and long-term sick leave (≥28 days).

Main Methods:

• A longitudinal study followed 2,252 employees in three Swedish municipalities for 4 years.
• Five health-oriented self-rating instruments were used as predictors.
• Outcome measures included no sick leave and long-term sick leave; predictive values and Cox proportional hazard ratios (RRs) were calculated.

Main Results:

• Instruments showed no statistical difference in predicting sick leave between sexes.
• Predictive RRs for no sick leave ranged from 1.27-1.52 (women) and 1.35-1.61 (men).
• Predictive RRs for long-term sick leave ranged from 1.78-2.39 (women) and 2.87-5.53 (men), with significantly higher prediction for men.

Conclusions:

• Long-term sick leave prediction was more accurate than predicting no sick leave.
• Prediction of sick leave was better among men than women.
• While multiple-question instruments showed a tendency for better prediction, single-question instruments are viable for screening future sick leave.