[Two-years' follow-up after lumbar disc surgery.]

Outcome studies of lumbar disc surgery document a success rate ranging between 49% and 90%, according to the evaluation criteria used. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic value of pain history and of sociodemographic, psychodiagnostic and medical factors for the long-term outcome after lumbar disc surgery.

Between selection for and performance of operations for herniated lumbar disc, 100 patients took part in standardized interviews about their clinical and social history. During the same session they answered one questionnaire on depression and one on coping strategies in response to pain. Two years after the operation, 83 patients answered the standardized follow-up questionnaires.

During the follow-up period, 7 (8.4%) patients had further back surgery, and 20% of the patients reported severe back pain on the follow up. With multivariate discriminant analysis, correct prediction of at most moderate back pain or severe back pain 2 years after the operation had been possible in 94.3% of the patients. The important predictors were found to be: duration of subjectively reduced working capability, pain at other locations, consideration or application for disability pension, depression, and severe acute pain. Risk factors for further back surgery were pain at other locations, guest for social support in response to pain, absence of muscle palsy and of Laségue's sign.

Anamnestic information on the pain history and psychological factors have prognostic value for the outcome after lumbar disc surgery. If there is no absolute medical indication for disc surgery, we suggest reconsidering the treatment planned for patients with the risk factors specified.