Concentration statistics for mixing-controlled reactive transport in random heterogeneous media

Uncertainty in the distribution of hydraulic parameters leads to uncertainty in flow and reactive transport. Traditional stochastic analysis of solute transport in heterogeneous media has focused on the ensemble mean of conservative-tracer concentration. Studies in the past years have shown that the mean concentration often is associated with a high variance. Because the range of possible concentration values is bounded, a high variance implies high probability weights on the extreme values. In certain cases of mixing-controlled reactive transport, concentrations of conservative tracers, denoted mixing ratios, can be mapped to those of constituents that react with each other upon mixing. This facilitates mapping entire statistical distributions from mixing ratios to reactive-constituent concentrations. In perturbative approximations, only the mean and variance of the mixing-ratio distribution are used. We demonstrate that the second-order perturbative approximation leads to erroneous or even physically impossible estimates of mean reactive-constituent concentrations when the variance of the mixing ratio is high and the relationship between the mixing ratio and the reactive-constituent concentrations strongly deviates from a quadratic function. The latter might be the case in biokinetic reactions or in equilibrium reactions with small equilibrium constant in comparison to the range of reactive-constituent concentrations. When only the mean and variance of the mixing ratio is known, we recommend assuming a distribution that meets the known bounds of the mixing ratio, such as the beta distribution, and mapping the assumed distribution of the mixing ratio to the distributions of the reactive constituents.