Does increasing cigarette excise tax improve people's health? The cases of heart attacks and stroke

Recently, public health advocates have fervently supported an increase in the cigarette excise tax as a means of reducing smoking. Likewise, political leaders have heavily relied on the cigarette excise tax as a means of encouraging a reduction in the overall rates of cigarette use. However, little is known about whether the cigarette excise tax is a valid tool for reducing the negative effects of smoking on public health. Our objective is to examine whether increasing the cigarette excise tax will reduce the morbidity rates of heart attack and stroke, which have consistently been among the major causes of death and disability in the United States.

We used the static and dynamic panel-data model to explore the impact of the US regional cigarette excise tax on morbidity rates of heart attack and stroke. These rates of heart attack and stroke are estimated based on the 1970-2000 National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS).

Study results show that the causal relationship between cigarette excise tax and morbidity rates of heart attack and stroke is unclear. However, the morbidity rates of non-smoking-related hypertension and high cholesterol-related diseases are positively correlated with the morbidity rates of heart attack and stroke.

We did not find clear empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that raising the cigarette excise tax effects a reduction the morbidities of heart attack and stroke. Therefore, use of the cigarette excise tax may not be an effective means to improve the health of the US population.