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Predicting World Cup results: do goals seem more likely when they pay off?
Maya Bar-Hillel1, David V Budescu, Moty Amar
1Hebrew University at Jerusalem, Israel.
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
|May 21, 2008
Summary
Researchers explored desirability bias in probability estimation during the World Cup. Findings suggest that team salience, not just wishful thinking, influences probability judgments, challenging previous desirability bias research.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
- Sports Analytics
Background:
- Previous research (Bar-Hillel & Budescu, 1995) did not find evidence of desirability bias in probability estimation.
- Desirability biases are often observed in contexts with high emotional investment, such as major sporting events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the presence of desirability bias in probability estimation within the context of the World Cup.
- To differentiate between desirability bias and salience effects in judgment.
Main Methods:
- Participants estimated the probability of teams winning World Cup games.
- Monetary rewards were contingent on specific team outcomes, manipulating desirability.
- A follow-up study used salience without monetary incentives to isolate effects.
Main Results:
- Participants assigned higher probabilities to their designated 'target' team winning when monetary rewards were linked to that team's success.
- However, increased target team probability judgments also occurred when the team was made salient, irrespective of monetary incentives.
Conclusions:
- The observed effect, initially appearing as desirability bias, may be attributable to a salience or marking effect.
- Wishful thinking, while a recognized phenomenon, remains difficult to demonstrate conclusively in this experimental paradigm.
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