[Analysis of mortality time series in malignant lung tumors and its future trends]

Time series of standardized mortality from malignant neoplasms of the trachea, bronchi and lungs in 1965 to 1986 were examined by a group of programmes for computer supported prognoses. Czechoslovak data were compared with those from Austria, Sweden and England and Wales. Extrapolation of time series revealed conclusively that the development in Czechoslovak men is alarming. While in all compared countries there was in recent years a declining mortality, in Czechoslovakia the mortality is rising despite the fact that it is already highest among the compared countries. In women the position is less adverse, as due to the substantially lower absolute values in all compared countries, the values of standardized mortality in Sweden and England rise in an exponential manner, while in Czechoslovakia the increase is linear. From the prognosis ensues thus quite unequivocally that the development in Czechoslovakia in men is absolutely and relatively very unfavourable and in women relatively favourable.